Economic Development of Uzbekistan in Q1 2024

In the countries — main trading partners of Uzbekistan, economic growth was observed during the period under review. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in Q1 this year, the Russian economy grew by 5.4%. China's GDP increased by 5.3% during the period. In Kazakhstan, the growth of the short-term economic indicator amounted to 4.7%. In Kyrgyzstan, the economic growth rate was 8.8%.

Inflation. In Uzbekistan, prices increased by 1.7% in the first three months (2.4% in Q1 2023). In annual terms, consumer price growth also slowed to 8% (11.7% in Q1 2023). For comparison, in Kazakhstan in Q1, the consumer price index by December 2023 increased by 2.6% (in annual terms – 9.3%), in Russia – by 1.9% (for the year – 7.8%). In Uzbekistan, in Q1 2024, prices for food products increased by 1.7%, non-food products – 1.1%, services – 2.3%.

According to the results of the first three months, there has been unprecedented investment activity – investments in fixed assets increased by 75%. Non-centralized investments increased 1.8 times, including foreign direct investment increased 2.6 times. There is also an increase in investments at the expense of enterprises' own funds by 13% and public funds by 6.3%.

Centralized investments increased by 17%. At the same time, investments at the expense of the budget decreased by more than 50%. Investments attracted under the government guarantee increased 2.4 times, but their share in the total investment volume is 4.8%.

In general, according to the results of Q1, the share of non-centralized investments in the total volume of investments amounted to 93%, while centralized investments accounted for 7%.

In all sectors of the economy, there was a faster growth dynamics compared to the figures for January-March 2023.

In agriculture, growth accelerated from 3.2% in Q1 2023 to 3.6% in Q1 this year. The output of crop and livestock production increased by 3.6%, forestry – 2.7%, fisheries – 5.8%.

Industrial production increased by 6.5% during the period (4.1% in January-March 2023). By sector, output in the manufacturing industry, which accounts for almost 80% of production, increased by 7.1%, in the extractive sector growth was 4.9%, in electricity, gas supply, air conditioning – 2.9%, water supply and waste disposal – 5.8%.

The growth rate of output in the construction sector in January-March 2024 amounted to 6.8% (for the same period in 2023 – 4.5%).

The volume of market services rendered in the first three months of 2024 increased by 14.2%, while in the same period of 2023 – by 10.9%. In particular, the largest growth was observed in the volume of services provided in the field of education – by 26%, financial services – 25%, information and communications – 19%, healthcare – 14%, accommodation and food – 11%, real estate – 11%. Retail turnover increased by 9.3%.

The volume of transport services increased by 7.2%, cargo turnover by 6.2%, passenger turnover by 5%.

Foreign trade turnover in January-March increased by 6.2% and reached $15.8 billion (in January-March 2023, the growth was 12.8%). At the same time, exports increased by 10% to $6.4 billion (decline of 0.7%), imports by 3.8% to $9.4 billion (23% increase).

In Q1 this year, exports of fuel and energy materials increased by almost 2 times, raw materials by 32%, chemical industry products by 28%, and services by 10%.

At the same time, Uzbekistan increased imports of fuel and energy materials by 37%, services by 40%, and industrial goods by 14%. At the same time, it should be noted that imports of food products decreased by 6.7%, chemical industry products by 2.5%, machinery and equipment by 2.6%.

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Ruslan Abaturov, CERR