The perils and promise of Trump’s approach to North Korea

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The perils and promise of Trump’s approach to North Korea

Published: 26 Mar. 2025, 00:01 Updated: 26 Mar. 2025, 17:40

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Kim Byung-yeon

The author is a chair professor of economics at Seoul National University.

Donald Trump’s signature diplomatic style is reemerging. President Trump appears to believe that economic tools can solve geopolitical and security problems. He has argued, for example, that the United States can enhance global security by acquiring and developing mineral resources in Ukraine. His thinking is that if American companies invest heavily in Ukraine, Russia will be less likely to invade. He even rejected President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appeal for direct military deterrence, reportedly urging him to accept a minerals deal instead, saying, “You have no cards to play.”

Trump has also floated the idea of resettling Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and turning the area into a U.S.-led resort development to promote peace in the Middle East.

U.S. President Donald Trump,right, gestures as he meets with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un at the start of their historic U.S.-North Korea summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. [ AFP/YONHAP]

In the 2018–19 negotiations with North Korea, President Trump employed the same economic approach. At the Singapore summit, he showed Kim Jong-un a promotional video illustrating what economic prosperity could look like if North Korea gave up its nuclear weapons. He is said to have specifically pitched the idea of developing the Wonsan region into a major resort to attract tourists and spur economic growth. These repeated gestures reveal Trump’s consistent belief that all problems can be resolved through economic means.

If we view the punitive tariffs that were a hallmark of his administration as a form of sanctions, then his approach to foreign policy in a second term would likely mirror his first-term strategy toward denuclearization: combining economic sticks, such as sanctions, with carrots like U.S.-led development. This strategy reflects his fundamental instincts as a businessman-turned-president. As he returns to the White House, it is likely that Trump will apply a similar formula to North Korea once again.

The risk of Trump’s approach lies in the potential for hasty compromise rather than lasting solutions. Misusing economic leverage could merely paper over deeper geopolitical and security issues. A weak lever cannot lift a heavy rock — or if it does, it won’t hold for long. But Trump, intensely focused on economic gain, often overlooks the strength and sustainability of his levers. Successful problem-solving requires shaping a favorable geopolitical landscape and seizing the right moment, yet these are areas he may neglect.

Today’s geopolitical environment favors North Korea, at least until the war in Ukraine ends. As Pyongyang and Moscow grow closer, any U.S. attempt to engage North Korea could hand Kim Jong-un the upper hand in negotiations. While Washington is currently trying to approach the conflict from the Russian side, if that fails, it might turn to Pyongyang as a way to pressure Moscow. In such a scenario, the United States may tacitly accept North Korea’s existing nuclear arsenal in exchange for a promise not to support Russia militarily.

Still, there is opportunity in Trump’s unconventional playbook. What we ultimately seek is peaceful unification with a North Korea that is nuclear-free and integrated into the international community. Traditionally, that path has meant gradual denuclearization, followed by sanctions relief, renewed inter-Korean economic cooperation, and the slow accumulation of progress.

But if the United States and international community were to strike a minerals agreement with North Korea to jointly develop critical resources, Pyongyang’s path to economic growth and globalization could accelerate. With international oversight over North Korea’s mineral industry, it would be virtually impossible for the country to repurpose uranium for nuclear development. The costs — in lost investment and diplomatic standing — would serve as a deterrent to further nuclear provocations.

In this way, economic development would not only be contingent upon denuclearization but also act as a deterrent against nuclear use — a virtuous cycle forged through economic engagement. It would be a “big bang” solution to the North Korean conundrum. Back in 2018, I proposed such a minerals-based strategy in a column titled “An Economic Solution to North Korea’s Denuclearization.”

Some even believe that without Trump’s style of disruptive deal-making, the status quo on the Korean Peninsula will never shift. Whether such a gamble can succeed will depend heavily on geopolitics — particularly North Korea’s ties with Russia and China. The main reason Trump failed to achieve denuclearization during his first term was China’s role as Pyongyang’s backstop. Today, that role belongs to Russia. Even if Russia pulls away, China could resume its support.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, walks down a beach in the Kalma coastal tourist area in the country's east coastal city of Wonsan, in this photo published by the Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 31, 2024. [YONHAP]

The United States must recognize that to succeed in shaking up the board, it must first neutralize Kim Jong-un’s geopolitical leverage. At the same time, Seoul and Washington must enhance the economic incentives on offer. Beyond Wonsan, areas like Mount Kumgang, the Gaema Plateau, and Mount Paektu could be developed into eco-friendly tourist destinations, giving North Korea a chance at rapid, transformative growth. Some in the North Korean elite reportedly showed interest in Trump’s earlier Wonsan resort proposal. Creating an environment in which Pyongyang’s leadership seriously weighs “nukes versus the economy” is essential if we are to reset the long-stalled inter-Korean relationship.

Trump’s potential return may heighten uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula — but it also presents a window of opportunity. The South Korean government must understand Trump’s approach to North Korea and craft a complementary strategy. By refining the former president’s simplistic and blunt proposals into a more sophisticated, proactive policy, Seoul can protect its national security and steer Pyongyang toward denuclearized development.

Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.