ANN/THE NATION – The Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) revised Thailand’s 2025 export growth forecast downward from two per cent to 1.6 per cent, citing escalating trade tensions and external economic pressures.
In November, SCB EIC had projected a two-per-cent growth rate, while the Commerce Ministry and government set a higher target of 3-3.5 per cent. However, the bank now warns that early-year growth drivers are unlikely to sustain momentum throughout 2025.
The EIC anticipates increasing global economic headwinds, particularly the intensifying United States (US) trade war, will exert greater pressure in the second quarter.
Despite this, exports are expected to expand in March, driven by strong demand for electronic goods and India’s surge in gold imports ahead of an upcoming legal amendment to close import loopholes. Moreover, the SCB EIC pointed out that the comparison base for March 2024 was exceptionally low at -10.5 per cent growth, which would contribute to a seemingly higher growth rate this month.
Exports are expected to start slowing down in the second quarter and to contract in the second half of the year due to trade barriers, declining investment, and shifts in labour and capital across various regions.
