Dutch Minister of Defence Ruben Brekelmans has warned that Russia could be ready to execute a “large-scale” troop movement approximately one year after any ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine, according to Dutch military intelligence.
This warning echoes Ukraine’s long-standing concerns about Russia’s expansionist ambitions, which Ukrainian officials have consistently highlighted. Brekelmans’ statements, delivered at a security conference in Baarn, further reinforce these concerns, painting a worrying picture of future Russian military actions.
In a speech, Brekelmans painted a scenario where Russian President Vladimir Putin might station “hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with the Baltic countries for a large-scale exercise,” noting that Ukraine’s experience shows “we know only one week in advance” whether such movements are merely exercises or preparations for an attack.
“We don’t know exactly how Putin will test NATO,” Brekelmans stated. “We do know that if Putin, after Ukraine, attacks a neighboring country that is in NATO, then we are part of it.”
The Dutch assessment appears more urgent than previous warnings from European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius, who cited Danish and German intelligence suggesting Russia might test NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause by 2030.
NATO’s Baltic members face the highest risk
According to the Danish Defence Intelligence Service’s February report, Russia would be able to free up “significant” military resources if the war in Ukraine stops or freezes, potentially enabling Russia to fight a regional war in the Baltic Sea area within approximately two years.
Brekelmans underscored Putin’s expansionist goals, reiterating that the Russian leader has repeatedly expressed a desire for revenge for the breakup of the Soviet Union and aims to restore its sphere of influence. He also noted that Russia continues investing heavily in its military industry and recruiting soldiers. The Dutch minister further warned that the Russian economy is now heavily reliant on the war industry and that the country will face “a big problem” if thousands of soldiers return home with post-traumatic stress disorder.
“In short, Putin has the intention, capabilities and incentives to continue his aggression beyond Ukraine,” the Dutch minister warned.
The Netherlands is currently considering what security guarantees would be necessary for a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine, including potential participation in a European military mission. Brekelmans stressed the importance of preparation, “especially now that we have to consider the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump. And the US demand that Europe take more responsibility for its own security.”
The minister also highlighted ongoing hybrid threats facing the Netherlands, including cyberattacks on hospitals and ports, espionage, and sabotage preparations. He described a concerning security environment with “unidentified drones near military bases, fishing boats that photograph petrochemical installations, and vessels on the North Sea that are secretly mapping internet cables, gas pipes and wind-energy parks.”
“We’re not at war with Russia, but Russia, in hybrid form, is with us,” Brekelmans concluded.
Earlier this week, the Netherlands announced plans to increase its defense personnel from 74,000 to 100,000 over the next five years, with potential growth to 200,000 – “the biggest increase since the end of the Cold War,” according to Brekelmans.
Read more:
- Russia may test NATO with limited attack, says German intelligence
- “Will be devastating”: NATO chief threatens Russia if it attacks Alliance
- Russia seeks “peace” to regroup and attack Ukraine again, says Latvian president
